Software development for
Calyon looks for dollar rebound this year
Interview given to Pro Finance by Mitul Kotecha, Head of Global Forex Market Research at Calyon. 31.03.2008.
EUR/USD is in a kind of consolidation after rally which we've seen in recent trading sessions. In your opinion, how big the potential for further upside is?
We still believe that EUR/USD will push higher and certainly 1.60 is likely this week, as the US economic data is continuing to disappoint expectations in contrast with the more upbeat European data. We think we could move above 1.60 towards 1.65, but, however, we don't see the euro sustaining gains there in longer term. Recently among market participants there were talks about possible ECB intervention if euro continues to appreciate. We think it will depend on the pace of the move and whether it will be accompanied by pick up in volatility but for now the risk of intervention is still fairly limited. Speaking about euro prospects we won't call them very positive. A lot of negativity is already in the price in terms of the US, so I think we will see some reassessment of US growth outlook and perhaps more importantly reassessment of growth elsewhere in a world, ant potentially some downside risks to the European growth outlook. More ...
Scotia Capital. Misfortunes of US and canadian dollars are not over yet
Interview given to Pro Finance by Stephen Malyon, currency strategist at Scotia Capital. 20.03.2008.
Persistent selling pressure on the US Dollar has helped the EUR/USD to set a new life-time highs. A number of other currencies also benefited from the dollar's decline, though the Canadian Dollar has been obviously left behind despite the positive trend in commodities. It seems that the resilience of the Loonie was conditioned by the monetary policy of BOC. Could you share your interest rates forecasts with us?
We suppose that the Bank of Canada will continue to reduce rates, at present our forecast is 50 b.p. decrease at the nearest meeting and the subsequent monetary policy easing that will be less aggressive than in USA, though. I agree that the position of the Central Bank has capped the uptrend in Canadian dollar lately. When you look at a number of currencies and how they have been performing against the US Dollar, you could notice that the Canadian dollar and the British pound showed the worst results due to the rates decrease in these respective countries, as the possibility of monetary easing in G10 countries is considered to be a negative factor. More ...
Barclays Capital. British pound will remain under pressure
Interview given to Pro Finance by Paul Robinson, Chief Sterling Strategist at Barclays Capital. 19.02.2008.
The market is expecting a number of economic data to be published in the nearest couple of days. Could you underline the most important reports among those that will be published on Wednesday and tell us what we should expect from the UK retail sales report scheduled on Thursday? What might they mean for British pound?
I think that probably the most important data still comes from the USA, in particular, we have the January CPI numbers published on Wednesday. Obviously, there is a lot of concern about the US economy slowdown, but there are some other factors that should never be overlooked and the elevated inflation is certainly among them. We expect that in January the headline CPI continued to accelerate on a year-to-year basis to 4.2% (ProFinance.com note: according to the median forecast of the economists polled by Reuters). Another fairly important data is the housing starts report. The house market in the US is really weak, and, I think, the market participants will pay much attention to these numbers. Also FOMC minutes published on Wednesday can be of interest as well. More ...
BOS Treasury: the pound will weaken while the dollar will rise in 2008
Interview given to Pro Finance by Steven Pearson, chief currency strategist from Bank of Scotland Treasury. 08.02.2008. BOS Treasury is Bank of Scotland Plc's department which in its turn is a member of HBOS Group.
Yesterday the Bank of England, as expected, cut the rate 0.25% to 5.25% and it was said in the accompanying statement that this decision will help to reach the target inflation of 2% in the medium term. What actions shall we expect from the Bank in the future? Do you think that it will have to adopt more aggressive stance of monetary policy easing due to risks to economic growth?
I don't think that there will be a more aggressive rate cut than it is currently expected by the market, which is 100 basis points. The Central Bank made a strong emphasis on current inflation and outlooks for inflation in its yesterday's statement, so I think that the Bank of England will proceed with caution. I don't think that we will see the same monetary policy style in the UK as in the USA, and the Central Bank will be much more gradual in its approach though this can lead to the significant short-term interest rates cut. More ...
US economy entered a tunnel without a light at the end
Interview given to Pro Finance Service by Dr. Ian C. Shepherdson, Chief U.S. Economist at High Frequency Economics. 29.01.2008.
Dr Ian C. Shepherdson has been described by the London Times as one of "the best economists in the City". Íå offers a unique transatlantic perspective on the U.S. economy. His publication, Daily Notes on the United States, is widely read by investors, policymakers and dealers in 20 countries. Prior to joining High Frequency Economics, Dr. Shepherdson was Chief Economist, USA, for HSBC Securities, Inc. in New York, where his views on the U.S. economy and markets guided the company's senior decison-makers and clients around the world. He also spent six years with HSBC in London, latterly as Chief U.K. Economist. Dr. Shepherdson was recently named top U.S. forecaster of 2003 by the Wall Street Journal. He is frequently quoted in the U.S. and international press, and he is a regular guest on U.S. National Public Radio's Marketplace. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from Loughborough University, in England. Today's interviewee of the Pro Finance Service is one of those people who live in tow cities at once. We managed to speak to Mr. Ian Shepherdson while he was staying in the capital of the United Kingdom. More ...
Credit Suisse: yen and frank will continue to strengthen
Interview given to Pro Finance by Martin McMahon, currency strategist at Credit Suisse 24.01.2008.
The Asian session show that the market has calmed down and the volatility is now lower. Do you think the situation has really stabilized?
Yesterday's actions in the stock market during American session and trade dynamics in Asia seem positive in the short-term, and we can see something like risk assets rally and lower volatility, in particular, taking into account coming FOMC meeting on rates, which is held next weak. But we suppose that market participants don't know all negative news concerning credit market and global economy perspectives, and current improvements are temporary. We expect some correction but in general see potential for further stock market downtrend and continued Japanese yen and Swiss frank strength. We believe correlation between the stock and currency market dynamics will remain, in particular, yen and franc will continue to move in tandem with the equity market. More ...
Bank of New York Mellon: US economy slowdown would be felt worldwide
Interview given to Pro Finance by Michael Woolfolk, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. 18.01.2008.
The recent situation on financial markets is characterized by high volatility. How long do you think this period of high volatility will last?
In foreseeable future (during the year - ProFinanceService.com) the market will remain under pressure as market participants have quite diverse opinions about the outlook on US economy and global economy.
Do you think the US economy recession fears will materialize?
At the moment I don't think this is the core scenario but there is a 50% chance of recession, to be more specific there is 45% chance of "mild" recession this year. More ...